Impact of Trump's Import Taxes and Rolex Market Trends
I recently got my hands on the Rolex GMT Master Pepsi on the Oyster bracelet—the one with the iconic blue and red ceramic bezel. This watch still rocks the luxury scene, even though it wasn’t discontinued at Watches and Wonders. In my deep dive, I looked at why this classic still holds its ground and why collectors still see it as a solid buy.
What I think:
My Observations on Import Taxes and the Watch Market
UK to US Tax Situation:
- The flat rate is now 10% on top of any watch purchased from a UK dealer like LWC. Before, depending on your state, it was somewhere between 5-8%, sometimes just a 2% bump.
- Compared to other regions, this 10% is pretty tiny compared to what Trump’s slapped on elsewhere.
EU to US Tax Situation:
- Trump’s new tariff from the EU is a whopping 38%—over three times more than the UK rate.
- For US buyers eyeing EU dealers, I’d say hold off for now because you end up with about another third of the watch’s price added on top.
China to US Tax Situation:
- It was around 4-8% before Trump’s changes, but now it’s jumped to roughly 25%.
- There’s a huge gray area about whether watches are actually made in China or Switzerland, so expect some bumps along the way.
Switzerland to US Tax Situation:
- Import duties for watches from Switzerland (including Rolex, PP, AP) have now shot up to 31%.
- In the short term, this definitely means gray market prices will rise in the US, and fewer brand-new watches will hit the market because companies can’t easily dodge that 31% hit.
Winners and Losers:
- The real winners? US gray market dealers—they’ve already stocked up, and domestic sales don’t face those extra import taxes.
- The losers are the fans of buying brand-new watches from authorized dealers. Expect fewer new watches coming to the US over the next 6-12 months.
Watches and Wonders Aftermath:
- The GMT Master Pepsi wasn’t discontinued, and I’m confident its price won’t change much in the next 6-12 months. Demand is still sky-high, they’re ridiculously hard to snag, and I’ll keep buying as many as I can.
- For the GMT Sprite (the left-hand drive model), demand remains, but I think its price will ease a bit slowly over the next few weeks until it sits comfortably in the market.
- The full Oyster Perpetual 41 range was discontinued and saw a price jump—now selling for around £16-17,000 compared to about £15,000 before.
Should You Buy It?
With the current import tax scene and the rising costs of luxury watches, anyone looking to grab a brand-new piece right now might be at a disadvantage, especially from authorized dealers. Overall, I’d hesitate to recommend diving into a new purchase at this moment; you might find better luck with gray market options or just holding off until things ease up a bit.